№19 (January-February 2021)


The unfolding political crisis in Russia brings Moscow and Minsk closer in their approaches to stabilizing the situation. Buildup of confrontation with the West and enhancement of military cooperation with Russia are perceived as the main instruments to resolve the crisis in Belarus.

Escalation of the relationship between Belarus and the European Union somewhat slowed. Both sides are pondering what has happened and looking into prospects of how bilateral engagement will evolve.

There was a seasonal slack in the relations between Belarus and China, with the exception of the political track.

Harsh tone persisted in mutual public rhetoric with the United States. At the same time, Minsk is showing its interest in improving the quality of the relationship. The U.S. slapped sanctions on more Belarusian individuals and entities, but for now refrains from largescale economic restrictions.

Political engagement with Ukraine began to escalate into a confrontation. Heightened tensions became discernable in trade and economic contacts as well. Belarus’s incumbent authorities as an international entity almost completely disappeared from Kyiv’s official discourse.

The regional security situation remained unfavorable. That said, the regional dynamic started showing a closer connection with that bilateral (relationship with Moscow). Belarusian security policy was stepped up, which is for the most part connected with its ongoing transformations.