We are happy to present the second issue of "Tochki nad U": East European Security Monthly.
Key developments in regional security in Eastern Europe in August 2022:
- In August, Russia continued its slow advance in Donbas and southern Ukraine. The south is its priority. Russia’s focus is on “grinding down” Ukraine’s manpower and military infrastructure without capturing vast densely populated areas.
- High-precision Western weapons enable Kyiv to deliver pinpoint strikes on Russian rear targets, but in August it was premature to speak about serious military (rather than media) repercussions of such attacks. At the end of August, Ukraine embarked on its long-announced counteroffensive for Kherson, but initially it looked more like a demonstration.
- Indications emerged of Ukraine’s transition to more asymmetric forms of warfare, which involve attacks and subversive operations behind enemy lines. This trend will grow stronger if Ukraine continues to lose its territory and the core of its mechanised army.
- A new surge in Western arms deliveries to Ukraine took place. Russia and the U.S. are preparing for a dragged-out war, although the European public is becoming increasingly discontented over its socioeconomic ramifications.
- Political tensions in the region remain high, with stakeholders actively using non-military escalation methods.
- Attempts are being made to exploit the progress of the Ukrainian grain agreement in order to commence ceasefire negotiations.
Full verision of the brief is available here.
PDF version of the brief is availbale below.
